Apple reports their Q3 earnings tomorrow (7/19) after the bell. After reading Fortune's Analyst roundup, I decided to put together my own revenue estimates based on their last 10-Q.
Here's a pretty conservative forecast:
Basically, I assumed a 20% bump for Mac, and a 50% bump for iPad, -20% for iPod, flat for iPhone (most analysts were bearish on iPhone units, so let's assume the worst), and 10% for everything else (not really material). This gives us a revenue of $27B, which is a 72% YoY growth rate.
If we bump up just the iPhone growth to 10%, that would be total revenue of $28.2B, or 80% YoY growth. With 20% unit growth, that's $29.5B, or 88% YoY growth. Of course, some analysts are predicting a drop in iPhone unit sales, but really, I don't see how that can happen in an industry expected to grow 55% this year, not even accounting for the cannibalization of RIM.
Apple's revenue distribution is also interesting:
1. It's really all about iPhones. Apple might as well rename themselves Apple Mobile, Inc.
2. iPads could soon earn Apple as much as laptops do.
3. iTunes + App Store revenue is about 10% of total.
So, we're looking at topline growth of between 70-90%, at a current P/E of 17.4. If we take the low end (70%) number and apply it to the whole year, the P/E at year end will be 14 at the current price. For perspective, about 70% of the Fortune 500 have a higher P/E than AAPL right now, companies that include Google, Oracle, Pfizer, Wipro, Pepsi, and Toyota. If you believe that Apple will maintain it's current P/E, then the stock price needs to go above $450 by year end.
So, my prediction is that we'll see a bump this week.
Disclaimer: I’m long AAPL Shares. Make sure to do your own thorough research before investing your hard earned money in the stock market.